Gem Splitter

About Gem Splitter

Other studies have made similar estimations. In June last year two thirds of bettors surveyed by YouGov said the tax increase, which will also hit online sports betting from next year, would drive them to play with unlicensed operators.

The UK has historically maintained a high channelisation rate due to it being particuarly mature with a huge competitive offering. According to the report, up to 1,491 licensed sites provides sufficient choice for engaged players.

The report utilised various methods to estimate the size and scale of Europe’s black market, including web traffic, digital marketing, macros data and regulations in place across the 28 markets surveyed.

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In Q1 2025, the group reported double-digit digital growth, thanks to strong UK, Brazil and US online performances. The period marked Stella David’s first quarter in the full-time group CEO role.

David, at the time, said she was “optimistic but prudent” about Entain’s Q1 performance.  

Numbers have remained steady a year on, and in H1 this year, various markets were hailed as core growth drivers for the business, including Australia, New Zealand, Spain and the UK.

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But it also requires investment at exactly the time shareholders are demanding better returns. Flutter’s recent results illustrate the tension. US adjusted EBITDA fell sharply in the first half of 2026, while the company continues to invest in FanDuel Predicts and other initiatives aimed at future growth.

But in the UK Entain’s share price weakness is less about prediction markets and more about tax, debt and confidence.

The company reported approximately £3.6 billion of net debt at the end of June, with reported leverage of 3.1x underlying EBITDA. Online underlying EBITDA fell 5% in the first half despite 7% growth in online net gaming revenue. The tax impact has been substantial.